NFL Report

 

The Never-Punting Story

What if your football team fired the punter? Using NFL play data from 2010 to 2013, we performed an analysis to understand how teams make play calls and drive the ball down the field in an attempt to find out what would happen if they stopped punting.
 
This report is:

  • An excellent example of an Economic Analysis and Marketing Science
  • An approach to the NFL you’ve probably never seen
  • Really fun perspective on one of our passions here at Troubadour

 
Table of Contents

  • Introduction 3
  • Methodology 4
  • Assumptions of the Model 6
  • Analysis 7
  • Further Analysis 9
  • Discussion 12
  • Why 12
Table of Figures

Figure 1: Play Calling by Down 2000-2013 4
Figure 2: Number of Drives Per Game 5
Figure 3: Simulation Score Differential: Benchmarking Test 7
Figure 4: Simulation Score Differential: Never Punt Test 8
Figure 5: Winning Percentages: Benchmark and Never Punt Test 8
Figure 6: Winning Percentages: Never Punt After the 50 Test 9
Figure 7: Simulation Score Differential: Never Punt After 50 Test 10
Figure 8: Winning Percentages: Never Punt Never Kick 11
Figure 9: Simulation Score Differential: Never Punt After 50 Test 11